Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.759703 3.792398 5.272042 7.627104 1.144301e+01 1.770006e+01 29.494071
2025-03-30 1.785781 2.824825 4.625294 8.246520 1.616157e+01 3.521278e+01 96.556475
2025-04-06 1.149519 2.007908 3.717809 7.858198 1.962396e+01 6.128182e+01 323.586334
2025-04-13 0.763134 1.436291 2.930509 7.148772 2.234371e+01 1.026584e+02 1376.579784
2025-04-20 0.576323 1.169441 2.642452 7.566056 3.118007e+01 2.526543e+02 31705.112729
2025-04-27 0.466495 1.018893 2.555316 8.713875 5.037574e+01 9.964423e+02 NaN
2025-05-04 0.387909 0.906522 2.512325 10.248138 8.802097e+01 7.994913e+03 NaN
2025-05-11 0.316401 0.779282 2.340649 11.132771 1.410368e+02 1.946180e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.249806 0.636532 2.016913 10.677236 1.833686e+02 1.780125e+08 NaN
2025-05-25 0.196619 0.512818 1.686731 9.646949 2.106063e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.168357 0.455793 1.593334 10.387184 3.567548e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.145480 0.407168 1.504632 11.113111 6.295322e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.127338 0.369722 1.454759 12.458141 1.434751e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.111632 0.334741 1.393523 13.722093 3.646073e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.094425 0.287804 1.233403 13.085252 5.977440e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.079414 0.244384 1.065499 11.825209 7.833263e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.070845 0.223265 1.016348 12.669067 2.715982e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.065261 0.212063 1.021564 14.935051 4.313722e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.060684 0.203353 1.038193 18.040566 2.901962e+14 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.055352 0.189477 1.007794 19.900832 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.049048 0.169280 0.914831 19.013868 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.043031 0.148775 0.806786 16.956474 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.039767 0.139917 0.785254 18.489825 NaN NaN NaN